Speaking of megacommunity and the alliance of local authorities in charge of different sectors, a couple of recent studies have highlighted a critical disjoint between transporation and climate forecasting, with special focus on the Gulf Coast where major highways, railroads and ports all stand to be submerged as sea level rises and surges from extreme storms send water inland.

Chris Mooney writes this anal ysis in Science Progress, noting how costly it will be to reduce vulnerability in only this area of the country.

To understand that vulnerability, consider a few facts laid out in the CCSP report: Over the next fifty to 100 years, global warming could inundate a “vast portion” of the Gulf Coast with a sea level rise in the range of 2 to 4 feet. That’s terrifying, because “27 percent of the major roads, 9 percent of the rail lines, and 72 percent of the ports are at or below 122 cm (4 feet) in elevation.” And of course, that’s just the risk posed by sea level rise. But as we all know, this region is also very vulnerable to hurricanes–which, surfing atop higher seas in the future, will prove even more devastating than they’ve been thus far. To once again quote from the CCSP report: “With storm surge at 7 m (23 ft), more than half of the area’s major highways (64 percent of Interstates; 57 percent of arterials), almost half of the rail miles, 29 airports, and virtually all of the ports are subject to flooding.”

Given the importance of transportation to support our very lives, not to mention our economies, the communication between transportation planners and climate forecasters just has to improve beyond the status quo. This is a critical megacommunity alliance, without which most of the rest of regional efforts to collaborate are doomed to failure.

It will be a massive task. We’ll need to ensure that the federal government requires higher standards of resiliency in the future for transportation infrastructure. We’ll have to ensure that states and localities get adequate federal funding to help them keep up with a changing climate; and that the relevant federal agencies, especially the Department of Transportation, get enough money in their own budgets to do the requisite climate-related adaptation work. We’ll need to immediately start rebuilding some of our most vulnerable infrastructure. And all of this activity will have to be coordinated, not willy-nilly.

Do you live where transportation systems are vulnerable to the kinds of extreme weather you’ve experienced? Has any planning been considered to reduce vulnerabilities?

Predicted by the NOAA via the National Weather Service a week ahead of the first floods, anyway. No, it’s not the kind of long range forecasting we could use for adaptation planning, but it’s enough in advance for citizens to prepare by evacuating, sandbagging, or whatever damage mitigation actions would be appropriate.

Much of the flooding in the northern states was caused by a combination of torrential rains and snow being melted by that rain. The risks due to this snow factor were recognized weeks before the February 20 warning by the Weather Service. Here’s how the Environmental News Service described the situation on March 20:

Above-normal flood potential is evident in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England, and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho.

Heavy winter snow combined with recent rain indicates parts of Wisconsin and Illinois should see minor to moderate flooding, with as much as a 20 to 30 percent chance of major flooding on some rivers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

Current snow depth in some areas of upstate New York and New England is more than a foot greater than usual for this time of the year, which increases the potential for flooding in the Connecticut River Valley.

Locations in the mountains of Colorado and Idaho have 150 to 200 percent of average water contained in snowpack leading to a higher than normal flood potential.

Snowfall has been normal or above normal across most of the West this winter, however, preexisting dryness in many areas will prevent most flooding in this region, according to the National Weather Service. Runoff from snow pack is expected to improve stream flows compared to last year for the West.

During that week more than 250 communities in a dozen states were experiencing flood conditions.